Methodology
How our analyst team picks matches — and how we keep ourselves honest.
TL;DR: Our analyst team researches each match, cross-checks the number against the live market and publishes only picks that clear a strict audited threshold. Every settled result is logged publicly — wins AND losses. No cherry-picking.
1. Research
Before a pick is written up we look at the things that actually move a line: recent form, head-to-head, lineups, suspensions, travel and schedule congestion, home-ground advantage, and how the market has priced similar matchups. The point is to form an honest view of the fair price for each outcome.
2. Pick-selection rules
A view is not enough — the price has to be right. A pick only ships when:
- Our analyst's fair price for the outcome is better than the best live book price (positive expected value).
- The pick isn't in a league or bracket where we don't have a long-run track record.
- The best available price still represents value at publication time (we re-check before posting).
3. Three disjoint tracked systems
Picks are sorted into exactly one of three feeds by their published odds:
WIN
Favorites ≤ 1.80. Highest strike rate.
OVERALL
Value 2.60–3.49. Balanced ROI engine.
ROI / VIP
High value ≥ 3.50. Maximum return per unit.
The three bands do NOT overlap. Every settled pick counts toward exactly one record. The 1.80–2.60 dead zone is skipped entirely — statistically nobody beats the market there. See the live records.
4. Settlement — real scores, cross-checked
When a match finishes, the final score is pulled from multiple independent resolvers and cross-checked. A dedicated reconciliation pass compares the stored score against the pick's outcome label; any disagreement is logged and corrected. The full conflict log is published to keep us honest.
5. Analyst accountability
Every analyst's output is scored on ROI (not win-rate) across their own settled picks on MantisPicks. Approaches that stop earning are retired. Approaches that consistently earn get more airtime. There is no hidden grading — the record you see on /results is the one we hold ourselves to.
6. Transparency guarantees
- Flat 1u stakes — every pick, every band. No stake-sizing that flatters the past.
- No losers deleted — every settled pick lives forever on /results. Wins and losses.
- Closing Line Value tracked — the % of our picks that beat the market's closing line — a stronger long-term signal than a hot streak.
- GENESIS date locked — the /results record starts at a fixed date; earlier picks are archived separately so no rule change silently rewrites history.
Not a crystal ball
No system predicts sport perfectly. Even our best band loses roughly one bet in two — the profit comes from betting at prices that pay more than the loss rate implies. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, our responsible-gambling page lists free confidential help. 18+.